Data released on Wednesday will help answer an important question: is Russia’s economy slowing or stalling? In the three years since the country invaded Ukraine, its economy has held up better than most observers had expected. Unemployment fell to just 2%. GDP growth has been decent due to oil exports, which were strong despite Western sanctions. Russian consumers benefited from the knock-on effects of an enormous boost to spending on defence, welfare and infrastructure. But that could now be changing. In late 2024 the West tightened its financial infrastructure and oil trade.
Tag: Russia
The Price of Europe’s Support for Ukraine
The war’s origins trace back to 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea following pro-EU protests in Kyiv, which led to conflict between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces in Donetsk and Luhansk. Tensions escalated in late 2021 as Russia massed troops near Ukraine’s borders, demanding security guarantees from NATO. When diplomatic efforts failed, Russia launched a full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, citing security concerns and alleged persecution of Russian speakers. Initial assaults targeted Kyiv, but after failing to seize the capital, Russian forces withdrew in April, refocusing their offensive on eastern and southern Ukraine, where as of 2024, they occupy around 20% of Ukraine, having gained over 4,000 square kilometres.
Trump to Mediate Peace between Russia and Ukraine
Nobody expects Donald Trump to end the Ukraine war in 24 hours, as he has claimed he could in the past. However, the new administration, which takes office on January 20th, is highly invested in bringing both sides to the negotiating a peace deal. But even that may prove difficult. In an Interview on December 30th the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, slammed leaked proposals from Trump’s team for a peace deal. Putin, who believes Russia is winning, has given no sign of retreating from his maximalist goals.
BRICS: India’s Position in the Emerging Global South Alliances
The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) grouping has been the forerunner of global economic and political developments for over a decade. The BRICS countries account for over 40% of the world’s population and over 25% of global GDP. They are also among the fastest-growing economies in the world. India is an important player in the BRICS grouping. It is the second most populous country in the world and the sixth largest economy. India has also been growing swiftly in recent years, with GDP growth comprising over 7% per year over the past decade.
African Economies will Flourish in 2025
In October the IMF described a “two-track growth pattern” in sub-Saharan Africa. On one track are most of the 23 countries with sizeable exports of non-renewable commodities such as oil, gold or diamonds. These include Angola, Nigeria and South Africa. As prices for their exports sagged, their GDPs per person have dropped in the past decade. Most resource-rich countries have also been focused more on dividing the spoils of the boom years than on using the proceeds to build resilient economies.
Artificial Intelligence: Thriving or Teetering?
The artificial intelligence (AI) industry was caught between euphoria and caution. Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Meta and Microsoft raced to invest, spending nearly $200 billion on AI infrastructure. Nvidia, the leader in AI-chip production, reaped gigantic rewards. Sales of such chips are expected to have doubled in 2024, driving its valuation to nearly $3.4 trillion. Demand for AI servers surged: firms such as Dell and HPE reportedly doubled their sales. But cracks began to show. The soaring energy costs of training and running generative AI models raise questions about long-term economic viability.
Israel’s Ceasefire in Lebanon and Iran’s Next Move
Iran analysts live by two core assumptions: that the country wants to fight Israel through proxies, rather than directly, and that it doesn’t want all-out war. Both now look fragile. Iran launched missiles at Israel in April and October, both in retaliation for Israeli attacks. Most of the missiles were intercepted. But now Iran appears weaker: Israeli strikes on Iranian military facilities on October 26th struck a blow to its defences and its strategy. And the killing of Hizbollah’s top ranks dealt a blow to the “axis of resistance”, a group of militias backed by Iran.
AI earn its Developers a Nobel Prize in Chemistry
It has been a big year for artificial intelligence models. For the first time ever, insights enabled by an AI model were deemed sufficiently significant to earn its developers one of the highest accolades in science: the Nobel prize in chemistry. The award jointly honoured the use of AI for protein-structure prediction and protein design. Innovations that underpin machine learning, meanwhile, were awarded the physics prize. Geoffrey Hinton, one of the winners, mused that by assisting mental labour, generative AI might have as big an effect on society as the industrial revolution did by assisting physical labour.
This Year, Putin’s Way
On Thursday Vladimir Putin hosts his annual press conference, in which he answers softball questions about the year’s achivements at great length. Russia’s president may be cheerful. His forces continue to progress in eastern Ukraine, albeit at a cost of many men. And Donald Trump’s victory might provide a boon. Many people think he will keep his promise to end the war swiftly by imposing a bad deal on Ukraine. Still, the Russian president has plenty of problems.
EU Ambitions in the Western Balkans
On Wednesday leaders from the six western Balkan countries hoping to join the European Union meet their counterparts from the bloc’s member states. They will discuss the EU’s “growth plan”, which aims to absorb the countries into individual aspects of the union, such as its single market, before they become full members. The region’s accession process began in 2003 but has generally slowed. Bulgaria, already an EU member, is blocking North Macedonia; Serbia’s dispute with Kosovo, its former province, hampers the accession of both; and Bosnia’s Serb leadership is more interested in destroying Bosnia-Herzegovina as a state than joining the EU.