When the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, every NATO member was forced to decide where it stood. Most followed Washington’s lead quietly, if not enthusiastically. Spain refused use of its bases and triggered a furious response from the White House. France and Germany called for restraint. Turkey reacted in a way that was more complex than the other countries. It condemned the strikes as a violation of international law and blocked coalition forces from using its airspace and bases. When Iran’s Supreme Leader was assassinated, Turkey publicly mourned the loss
Category: Middle East and North Africa
Was the Sinking of IRIS Dena by the United States a War Crime?
At 5:08 in the morning of March 4, 2026, a distress call crackled out from a position roughly 40 nautical miles south of Galle, Sri Lanka. By the time Sri Lankan naval vessels reached the coordinates, IRIS Dena, an Iranian Moudge-class frigate, commissioned in 2021, carrying approximately 180 sailors had already vanished beneath the Indian Ocean. What remained were spreading oil slicks, floating debris, and men treading water far from shore. The US government later confirmed, with apparent pride, that one of its nuclear-powered attack submarines had fired a single Mark 48 torpedo at the vessel.
After Khamenei: Iran’s Uncertain Path to a New Supreme Leader
The death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would represent one of the most consequential political turning points in the history of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Since succeeding Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989, Khamenei has served as the central authority within Iran’s political system. The Supreme Leader holds ultimate control over the military, the judiciary, intelligence services, and nuclear policy, making the position the most powerful office in the country. With Khamenei gone, Iran would face an uncertain leadership transition that could reshape both its domestic political order and its regional strategy
Assassination of Khamenei, India’s Silence and the Crisis of International Morality
After bunker-buster bombs dropped by American bombers killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with his merely 14-month-old granddaughter, close relatives, and high-ranking officials, the Iranian government declared him a “martyr” and announced 40 days of national mourning. The incident has drawn mixed reactions globally. Some countries condemned it, while others maintained silence or expressed support. However, in recent days, a strange trend was visible on social media. After the news of Khamenei’s killing, in some sections of India there was more celebration than mourning
Escalation in West Asia: U.S.-Israel Joint Offensive and Iran’s Retaliation
On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel initiated coordinated large-scale strikes against targets in Iran, marking a significant escalation in the longstanding tensions over Iran’s nuclear programme, ballistic missile capabilities, and regional influence. The operation, designated “Operation Epic Fury” by the United States and “Operation Roaring Lion” by Israel, commenced in the early hours local time with explosions reported across multiple Iranian cities, including the capital Tehran
Strategic Dynamics and Stakes in the Iran-U.S. Nuclear Talks
For twenty years, Iran’s nuclear program has been a key point of contention in U.S.–Iran relations. After the U.S. exited the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Tehran gradually increased its enrichment levels beyond the established limits. Diplomatic attempts in 2025 led to indirect talks facilitated by Oman and Italy, but these efforts fell apart due to escalating tensions, particularly following a 12-day conflict involving U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear and military facilities in June 2025.
Sudan and South Sudan: Two Civil Wars, Two Failures of the State
Sudan and South Sudan are close to a dangerous regional crisis. However, their conflicts are not combining into one big regional civil war because their internal issues are very different and do not easily connect. Sudan’s war, which has lasted over 1,000 days since April 2023, involves the Sudanese Armed Forces, led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, fighting against the Rapid Support Forces, led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti). This is a harsh battle for control of the country, driven by personal goals, money from gold mines in Darfur, and support from other countries.
10 Conflicts to Watch in 2026
As we moved into 2026, the world is no longer merely “watching” conflicts – it is living with them. Civil war in Sudan has deepened into a regional humanitarian catastrophe, Ukraine remains locked in a war of attrition with global consequences, India-Pakistan tensions continue to cast a long shadow over South Asia and multiple theatres across Central Africa are sliding into protracted violence. This special newsletter revisits the evolving conflict landscape and examine what these wars reveal about power, governance and the fragility of the current global order and why their trajectories in 2026 matter far beyond their immediate borders.
Yemen’s Fractured War and the Fragile Politics that Keep it Alive
The Yemen crisis is again showing the world that wars do not end just because the fighting stops. They end when the political deals that caused them are fixed, or when those deals completely fail. In late 2025 and early 2026, Saudi airstrikes, land gains by the United Arab Emirates-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), and worse Saudi-UAE ties have brought back some of the biggest problems in Yemen’s war. This is happening at a time when global shipping routes, energy markets, and regional security are already weak. Yemen is again a local war with worldwide effects.
Economic Collapse and Political Revolt: Iran on the Edge
Since the last week of December 2025, Iran has seen its largest uprising in years. The immediate cause was the collapse of the national currency, the rial. Shopkeepers in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar shut their stores in protest, sparking a nationwide demand for political change. What started as an economic complaint quickly escalated into a direct challenge to the theocracy. The unrest spread to at least 78 cities and over 200 locations by early January 2026. This movement, met with harsh repression, has tested the regime’s stability.