Data released on Wednesday will help answer an important question: is Russia’s economy slowing or stalling? In the three years since the country invaded Ukraine, its economy has held up better than most observers had expected. Unemployment fell to just 2%. GDP growth has been decent due to oil exports, which were strong despite Western sanctions. Russian consumers benefited from the knock-on effects of an enormous boost to spending on defence, welfare and infrastructure. But that could now be changing. In late 2024 the West tightened its financial infrastructure and oil trade.
Tag: Ukraine
The Price of Europe’s Support for Ukraine
The war’s origins trace back to 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea following pro-EU protests in Kyiv, which led to conflict between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces in Donetsk and Luhansk. Tensions escalated in late 2021 as Russia massed troops near Ukraine’s borders, demanding security guarantees from NATO. When diplomatic efforts failed, Russia launched a full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, citing security concerns and alleged persecution of Russian speakers. Initial assaults targeted Kyiv, but after failing to seize the capital, Russian forces withdrew in April, refocusing their offensive on eastern and southern Ukraine, where as of 2024, they occupy around 20% of Ukraine, having gained over 4,000 square kilometres.
Trump to Mediate Peace between Russia and Ukraine
Nobody expects Donald Trump to end the Ukraine war in 24 hours, as he has claimed he could in the past. However, the new administration, which takes office on January 20th, is highly invested in bringing both sides to the negotiating a peace deal. But even that may prove difficult. In an Interview on December 30th the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, slammed leaked proposals from Trump’s team for a peace deal. Putin, who believes Russia is winning, has given no sign of retreating from his maximalist goals.
Constitutional Crisis in Georgia
On New Year’s Eve demonstrators in Tbilisi, Georgia’s capital, held a supra (a traditional feast) outside the parliament. They were not only welcoming in 2025 but expressing, yet again, their outrage at the ruling Georgian Dream party. In November, after winning a dodgy election, it halted EU-accession talks. The protestors, who will probably assemble for a 36th consecutive day on Thursday despite attempts to dissuade them with beatings, water cannon and tear gas, want a fresh vote to get Georgia back on a pro-Western track.
AI earn its Developers a Nobel Prize in Chemistry
It has been a big year for artificial intelligence models. For the first time ever, insights enabled by an AI model were deemed sufficiently significant to earn its developers one of the highest accolades in science: the Nobel prize in chemistry. The award jointly honoured the use of AI for protein-structure prediction and protein design. Innovations that underpin machine learning, meanwhile, were awarded the physics prize. Geoffrey Hinton, one of the winners, mused that by assisting mental labour, generative AI might have as big an effect on society as the industrial revolution did by assisting physical labour.
2024 in Review: A Roundup of all Ongoing Conflicts
In April 2023 civil war broke out between Sudan’s national army and the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group. The conflict has caused a catastrophic humanitarian crisis: so far almost 30% of the country’s pre-war population of 50 million has been displaced. As 2024 began the RSF appeared to have upper hand. It had taken over much of Khartoum, the capital. Meanwhile almost all of Darfur, in the west, was under its control, though the army clung on to el-Fasher, the regional capital. The RSF’s leader, Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo even embarked on a triumphant tour of African capitals.
This Year, Putin’s Way
On Thursday Vladimir Putin hosts his annual press conference, in which he answers softball questions about the year’s achivements at great length. Russia’s president may be cheerful. His forces continue to progress in eastern Ukraine, albeit at a cost of many men. And Donald Trump’s victory might provide a boon. Many people think he will keep his promise to end the war swiftly by imposing a bad deal on Ukraine. Still, the Russian president has plenty of problems.
EU Ambitions in the Western Balkans
On Wednesday leaders from the six western Balkan countries hoping to join the European Union meet their counterparts from the bloc’s member states. They will discuss the EU’s “growth plan”, which aims to absorb the countries into individual aspects of the union, such as its single market, before they become full members. The region’s accession process began in 2003 but has generally slowed. Bulgaria, already an EU member, is blocking North Macedonia; Serbia’s dispute with Kosovo, its former province, hampers the accession of both; and Bosnia’s Serb leadership is more interested in destroying Bosnia-Herzegovina as a state than joining the EU.
Dispute over Military Operation Planning between the US and Ukraine
A war of words has broken out between the outgoing Biden administration and Ukraine’s president. Several US senior ranking officials have recently argued that Ukraine’s biggest problem is lack of manpower, and that it needs to lower the minimum age of conscription from 25 to 18. A government spokesman said that if Ukraine changes its policy, America will arm and train the recruits. Zelensky retorted that allies had fully equipped only a quarter of the ten brigades that he had requested earlier in the year.
The Caretaker Prime Minister of Syria
On 8 December 2024, the Syrian Arab Republic under Bashar al-Assad collapsed amid major offensives by the Syrian opposition (led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham – HTS and supported by other rebel groups, including the Turkish backed Syrian National Army) as part of the Syrian civil war which began in 2011. The fall of Damascus marked the end of the Assad’s regime, which had ruled Syria as a totalitarian hereditary dictatorship since 1971.