10 Conflicts to Watch in 2026

As we moved into 2026, the world is no longer merely “watching” conflicts – it is living with them. Civil war in Sudan has deepened into a regional humanitarian catastrophe, Ukraine remains locked in a war of attrition with global consequences, India-Pakistan tensions continue to cast a long shadow over South Asia and multiple theatres across Central Africa are sliding into protracted violence. This special newsletter revisits the evolving conflict landscape and examine what these wars reveal about power, governance and the fragility of the current global order and why their trajectories in 2026 matter far beyond their immediate borders.

How Criminal Law Became a Tool of U.S. Foreign Policy in Trump’s Maduro Operation

In the early hours of January 3, 2026, more than 150 U.S. military aircraft launched from bases across the Western Hemisphere, converging on Caracas. By dawn, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was aboard the USS Iwo Jima, bound for New York to face narcoterrorism charges. The operation, codenamed “Absolute Resolve,” represented the most audacious military action against a foreign head of state since the 1989 Panama invasion. But unlike traditional warfare, this operation unfolded under a different legal banner entirely: law enforcement.

The Caracas Raid, State Criminalisation, and America’s Domestic Calculus

In the early hours of January 3, 2026, U.S. Special Forces carried out a daring raid in Caracas, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. This significant military operation involved over 150 aircraft neutralising Venezuelan air defences to extract the couple. It marked a major shift in U.S. foreign policy. The raid was not spontaneous; it was the result of a long-term effort by the U.S. to oust Maduro, an authoritarian leader accused of serious corruption and drug-related crimes. President Donald Trump defended the action by labelling Maduro a criminal instead of a statesman, stating that the U.S. would manage Venezuela to help with a government transition.

The Caribbean Powder Keg: A Formula for an Unwanted War

Global attention is fixed on the tense standoff between the US and Venezuela, marked by military posturing and combative language. This situation does not resemble a conventional war; rather, it is a precarious confrontation that could escalate into widespread conflict with a single misstep. The Trump administration has deployed an impressive naval fleet to the Caribbean – a collection of destroyers and amphibious assault vessels executing operations against ships labeled as drug traffickers. Officially aimed at addressing narcotics issues, the real motivation appears to be a high-stakes geopolitical manoeuvre that threatens to unsettle Latin America and involve foreign powers.