In the icy waters southeast of Okinawa, a Japanese F-15 pilot’s cockpit alarm issues a serious warning. A Chinese J-15 fighter jet has locked its fire-control radar onto the aircraft, a modern equivalent of pointing a loaded gun. In Tokyo, officials urgently summon the Chinese ambassador. In Beijing, state media threatens “severe consequences.” This incident on December 7, 2025, was not an isolated near-miss. It marked the latest and most concerning trigger in a diplomatic crisis that has pushed Asia’s two biggest powers to the brink of conflict, a situation both deny wanting but seem unable to escape.