Historically it is the competition for land that provokes tensions between the states, over time the world has seen this shift towards the blue territories as Kaplan calls it. Two explanations for the same could be economic mercantile trade and the dynamic shift of attention from Eurasia to East Asia which is largely maritime. Kaplan says that seas can act as a seed or a dodger in creating tensions and even invasions. However, the likelihood is quite tilted towards aggression.