By the start of 2024 high inflation had forced the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to 5.5% – their highest level for more than two decades. Many expected America to have a recession. Instead, its economy has boomed. In the third quarter it grew by 2.8% year on year – a full percentage point more than forecast in July. America’s unemployment rate is around 4%, well below the average of the past 30 years. And inflation is finally coming down. Output per person is 40% higher in America than in Western Europe and Canada and 60% higher than in Japan.
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The Biggest Election Surprises this Year
Donald Trump’s first presidential win, in 2016, was shocking. His victory in 2024, was even more extraordinary. It came after he had incited his supporters to try to violently overturn the result of the 2020 election. He then had to weather about 90 felony indictments. In April 2024 he became the first former president to stand in a criminal trial. Drama in the courtroom aside, by early summer the presidential contest seemed almost dull. Trump easily secured the Republican nomination and held a clear lead over his 81-year-old Democratic opponent, Joe Biden.
Artificial Intelligence: Thriving or Teetering?
The artificial intelligence (AI) industry was caught between euphoria and caution. Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Meta and Microsoft raced to invest, spending nearly $200 billion on AI infrastructure. Nvidia, the leader in AI-chip production, reaped gigantic rewards. Sales of such chips are expected to have doubled in 2024, driving its valuation to nearly $3.4 trillion. Demand for AI servers surged: firms such as Dell and HPE reportedly doubled their sales. But cracks began to show. The soaring energy costs of training and running generative AI models raise questions about long-term economic viability.
Special Packages: Unpacking India’s Fiscal Federalism
Earlier this year, the chief ministers of Bihar and Andhra Pradesh had demanded special financial packages for their respective states from the Centre. Special Packages for both states were announced in the Union Budget 2024-25. The issues catered in the package ranged from subjects like Irrigation, Flood Mitigation, Purvodaya: Vikas Bhi, Virasat Bhi, Airports, Medical Colleges, Sports Infrastructure, Highways, Industrial Corridors and Tourism development. Special Packages refer to the support provided to states facing geographical and socio-economic challenges, offering them additional financial assistance and other benefits.
Israel’s Ceasefire in Lebanon and Iran’s Next Move
Iran analysts live by two core assumptions: that the country wants to fight Israel through proxies, rather than directly, and that it doesn’t want all-out war. Both now look fragile. Iran launched missiles at Israel in April and October, both in retaliation for Israeli attacks. Most of the missiles were intercepted. But now Iran appears weaker: Israeli strikes on Iranian military facilities on October 26th struck a blow to its defences and its strategy. And the killing of Hizbollah’s top ranks dealt a blow to the “axis of resistance”, a group of militias backed by Iran.
AI earn its Developers a Nobel Prize in Chemistry
It has been a big year for artificial intelligence models. For the first time ever, insights enabled by an AI model were deemed sufficiently significant to earn its developers one of the highest accolades in science: the Nobel prize in chemistry. The award jointly honoured the use of AI for protein-structure prediction and protein design. Innovations that underpin machine learning, meanwhile, were awarded the physics prize. Geoffrey Hinton, one of the winners, mused that by assisting mental labour, generative AI might have as big an effect on society as the industrial revolution did by assisting physical labour.
Why Nuclear Weapons Remain the Privilege of the Few?
While a lot of countries associate the possession of nuclear weapons as a huge plus to their geopolitical power, there are still some that fear the consequences and stay within the protected boundaries of conservatism while going international. No matter how awed we can be when seeing nuclear missile tests or new launches happen, we still have a long way to go to see what constitutes hegemony very easily here and how only 9 countries in the world have gone nuclear so far. The problem with this distinction is, it is no longer dependent on resources or military strength, but rather a very calculative set of steps that go beyond what a simple human can imagine.
2024 in Review: A Roundup of all Ongoing Conflicts
In April 2023 civil war broke out between Sudan’s national army and the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group. The conflict has caused a catastrophic humanitarian crisis: so far almost 30% of the country’s pre-war population of 50 million has been displaced. As 2024 began the RSF appeared to have upper hand. It had taken over much of Khartoum, the capital. Meanwhile almost all of Darfur, in the west, was under its control, though the army clung on to el-Fasher, the regional capital. The RSF’s leader, Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo even embarked on a triumphant tour of African capitals.
This Year, Putin’s Way
On Thursday Vladimir Putin hosts his annual press conference, in which he answers softball questions about the year’s achivements at great length. Russia’s president may be cheerful. His forces continue to progress in eastern Ukraine, albeit at a cost of many men. And Donald Trump’s victory might provide a boon. Many people think he will keep his promise to end the war swiftly by imposing a bad deal on Ukraine. Still, the Russian president has plenty of problems.
China’s Economic Policy for 2025
On December 9, 2024, the Political Bureau (Politburo) of the Central Committee (CC) of the Communist Party of China (CPC) convened a meeting to discuss the country’s economic policy priorities for the year 2025 and the broader and deeper challenges facing the Chinese economy. The headline of the readout is “CPC Central Committee Political Bureau Holds Meeting to Analyze and Research 2025 Economic Work, Study and Deploy Party Conduct, Clean Governance and Anti-Corruption Work, CPC General Secretary Xi Jinping Presides Over Meeting.